The US-China Influence Battle in Asia
Some Asian countries, such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Afghanistan, do not fully align with China or the United States. There are more countries in the world that could be swing states because of their geopolitical position, strategic relevance, and global participation. These countries are called swing states. China is attempting to gain influence in these swing states, causing concern in other countries. One swing state, like the Maldives, has recently made decisions that help China more than other countries. The competition for the US-China influence battle in Asia is becoming more intense.
Some see parallels between the current US-China rivalry and the long-ago Cold War. But it’s important to understand that this competition is different. While the US is keen on seeing things from its vantage point, Asian nations may have other preferences. Various countries in Asia have diverse political approaches and may not blend with America or China in the context of their own country’s interests. Sometimes, they have debates about who to align with, but often, they have other important things to worry about. China poses a significant challenge in this competition, and despite its increased power, most Asian countries remain safe from Chinese control.
Some Asian nations’ political discourse and desired outcomes do not readily fit into the United States’ current view of the world as a war between tyranny and democratic governance. These countries have their unique ways of doing things, and they believe they can have good relationships with both sides.
China’s expanding influence in various Asian nations requires innovative and sustained US action. However, this influence is unique across the region. The US has acknowledged this and told countries in the Indo-Pacific region that they can have some space to work with China. It’s crucial for policymakers to understand that Asia is diverse and to be careful in how they approach each country. The United States needs to understand the differences between countries and adapt its policies accordingly.
Asian countries are more stable and less likely to fight other countries on their soil. The governments in Asian countries are more substantial and less easily influenced by Western forces. The democracies in Asia are not rushing to adopt the liberal values that the United States is promoting. The United States wants to focus on things like democracy, a free press, and a robust civil society in its approach to Asia. Yet, leaders in Asian countries like India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore have different priorities.
Most Asian countries do not find the work of the American and Chinese governments particularly appealing or significant. The idea of Asia as a conflict between authoritarianism and democracy is not accurate, as countries like Thailand, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan are doubtful of transitioning into either. In Asia, there are many countries with different political situations. This means that when countries like China and India compete for power, it gets complicated because each country has its internal political competition.
The US should maintain its push for closer ties with Asian nations embroiled in territorial or oceanic conflicts with China, in particular. Although China’s growing influence in the area is cause for concern, regional countries must exercise caution and not jump to conclusions about an enormous regional change. The United States has the potential to outperform China’s efforts in handling the tricky political landscape of Asia. However, it is crucial to approach each country on a case-by-case basis and adapt to specific local contexts. Regardless of China’s influence, everyone should focus on what the United States and its allies can contribute in this context, which will allow the United States to achieve its strategic goals and engage with the swing states of Asia as a nation.
Reference(s)
Alliances in a Shifting Global Order: Rethinking Transatlantic Engagement with Global Swing States. (2023, May 2). GMFUS.
Cohen, J. (2023, May 15). The rise of geopolitical swing states. Goldman Sachs.
Staniland, P. (2024, May 3). The Myth of the Asian Swing State: Great-Power Competition No Longer Dominates the Region’s Politics. Foreign Affairs.
Today’s Armed Conflicts – The Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights.
